Another fall sport

This fall, like pretty much every fall, comes complete with college football! Yet this year there's another set of contests that may actually be more important: the 2010 elections. In the U.S., I think we tend to look at elections like a sport, as opposed to a constructive partnership  (where you both agree on the common goal, yet sometimes differ on how to get there). In spite of all that, I'm gonna look at it like a sport right now...

This afternoon I read someone's thesis on the Daily Kos that the "tea party" has effectively re-energized the democrats. For one thing, the media has been showcasing those candidates who are more on the "fringe" (see Christine O'Donnell ...). And, when the national media (and democrats) paint all Republican candidates in this light, it engages the Democratic base (while discouraging moderate conservatives and "independents")....

After that, I read this story:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/10/21/912438/-No-enthusiasm-gap-a...

Now so far, this prediction is largely basecd on the dynamics of voter intensity (and its correlations in the polls).  But I think there's another thing to consider.  Namely, when compared to recent history, lots of things *have* changed domestically in the last 3 years, especially since Obama became president....

So it occurs to me that, overall, the country may still need to process it all.  Consequently, I think this results in a fundamental desire to have stability in the country right now (and into the near future). And a largely "status quo" election would give these reforms/changes some time to actually get in place to work on the ground.

The logical conclusion of these assumptions is that the Democrats will lose perhaps 40-50 seats.  They may not retain the House, but it would be close.  And the Senate would shift 2-3 seats to the Repubs, but remain Democratic overall.

So, it is becoming a highly interesting part of this year, even just viewed from the "sporting event" standpoint....  I look forward to seeing how this all plays out in the last 8 days.